Neverside

i'm voting rkosmic1 biggest douche in the universe. he might even beat last year's champ, john edwards.:grumpy

"If Clinton had only 1 term behind him at the last election and he ran instead of Gore, he would have won."

pure speculation based on nothing.

this is so easy.

( me spikes the ball )

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Quote:

Originally posted by keen
Kerry would lead to the US being invaded and we would all be slaves in the long run

pure speculation based on nothing.

this is so easy.

( me spikes the ball )

___________________

"I once knew a man who said death smiles at us all;
All a man can do is smile back."

-Gladiator

Quote:

Originally posted by rkosmic1
pure speculation based on nothing.

this is so easy.

( me spikes the ball )

pure speculation based on nothing.

this is so easy.

( me spikes the ball )

___________________

Bmovies are BACK!

Quote:

Originally posted by rkosmic1
"If Clinton had only 1 term behind him at the last election and he ran instead of Gore, he would have won."

pure speculation based on nothing.

this is so easy.

( me spikes the ball )

Political trend started a long time ago
FDR - 3 terms (after this they limited it to 2 4 years terms)
Truman - 2 terms
Eisenhower - 2 Terms
JFK - Killed in office half a term
Johnson - Served 1.5 terms.
Nixon - Started his 2nd term, but resigned
Ford - 1 Term, defeated by Carter while trying for #2
Carter - 1 Term, he chose not to run again
Reagan - 2 terms
Bush #1 - 1 term, defeated by Clinton while trying for #2
Clinton - 2 terms
Bush #2 - Will most likely serve another term

Political trend shows that the current President is most likely to be re-elected. Like I said, people don't like change. Especially you. Let's watch this go to debates and get locked now.

Even though I'm not for Bush, $50 says that November 3rd newspapers talk about Bush be re-elected.

Link for fun: http://www.watchblog.com/

Last edited by evan, May 6th, 2004 04:20 AM (Edited 1 times)

I didn't QUITE see the trend, although I tend to agree that Bush is likely the person who will serve the next term.

You have to take into account party affiliations AND congressional party majority as well if you're wanting to try to anticipate a trend that might actually BE a trend. Just something to consider.

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Bmovies are BACK!

Basically for the past 70 some odd years, almost everyone who has run for re-election has been re-elected.

I see what you're saying, 2 out of twelve who ran and were defeated is relatively small...however, shouldn't we be discrediting those who chose NOT to run for a second term? After all, while your "trend" supports their possible re-election, extraneous circumstances may have things turn out quite the opposite.

So, a safe bet is that 20% of those who run for re-election aren't re-elected. That's 1 in 5.

___________________

Bmovies are BACK!

Quote:

Originally posted by actionPlant
extraneous circumstances may have things turn out quite the opposite.

Like Supreme Court rulings.
I think a majority of people based on what the candidate is actually doing. If he's already in office, why not keep him there and let him finish what he started sort of thing.

A political ploy is to start major bills (that take a year or more to pass) 6-7 months before the election. That way people get the mentality that the current President should see the bills through and re-elect him come November.

"Like I said, people don't like change. Especially you"

and you read my mind when?

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